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https://hdl.handle.net/11681/3985| Title: | An illustrative case study of the application of uncertainty concepts and methods for ecosystem restoration |
| Authors: | Suedel, Burton C. Baker, Kelsie M. Vogel, John T. Valverde, L. James Fischenich, J. Craig, 1962- Linkov, Igor Convertino, Matteo |
| Keywords: | Ecosystem Management and Restoration Research Program (U.S.) Restoration ecology Uncertainty |
| Publisher: | Engineer Research and Development Center (U.S.) |
| Series/Report no.: | Technical Note (Ecosystem Management and Restoration Research Program (U.S.)) ; no. ERDC TN-EMRRP-ER-14 |
| Abstract: | The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) is engaged in ecosystem restoration projects that are often characterized by varying degrees of risk and uncertainty. Though current policy requires that these issues be addressed,1 they are often given insufficient attention. Failure to quantify risk and uncertainty can result in overly conservative or misinformed restoration management policies, excess project costs, and failure to achieve project goals. The purpose of this technical note is to demonstrate — using an illustrative case study – how risk and uncertainty tools and techniques can be applied to ecosystem restoration projects. A global sensitivity and uncertainty analysis approach is proposed for identifying the most important factors to consider in a restoration project. In addition, the magnitude of the restoration needed to achieve a positive outcome for the target ecosystem is quantified. This case study is provided as a complement to Application of Risk Management Concepts and Methods for Ecosystem Restoration: Principles and Best Practice (Suedel et al. 2012). That technical note reviews current USACE risk and uncertainty management in ecosystem restoration projects, provides an overview of the relevant risk management concepts, and discusses the applicability of these concepts and tools to restoration projects. This technical note presents a case study that addresses the sensitivity of restoration outputs to uncertainty in key drivers of environmental processes. In particular, the Snowy Plover — a resident shorebird of Florida — and its risk of decline and extinction due to potential sea-level rise (SLR) is assessed. Finally, the best management outcomes are evaluated for the Snowy Plover in light of the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. |
| Description: | Technical Note |
| Gov't Doc #: | ERDC TN-EMRRP-ER-14 |
| Rights: | Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited |
| URI: | http://hdl.handle.net/11681/3985 |
| Appears in Collections: | Technical Note |
Files in This Item:
| File | Description | Size | Format | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ERDC-TN-EMRRP-ER-14.pdf | 606.91 kB | Adobe PDF |  View/Open |