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Title: Projecting ice-affected streamflow by extended Kalman filtering
Authors: California State University, Fullerton
Geological Survey (U.S.). Water Resources Division. Michigan District
Holtschlag, David J.
Parker, Charles T.
Grewal, Mohinder S.
Keywords: Forecasting
River ice
Lake ice
Ice jams
Platte River (Neb.)
Ice effects
Kalman filter
Kalman filtering
Stream measurements
Saint John River (Me. and N.B.)
Publisher: Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory (U.S.)
Engineer Research and Development Center (U.S.)
Series/Report no.: CRREL report ; 97-8.
Description: CRREL Report
Abstract: An extended Kalman filter was developed to automate the real-time projection of ice-affected streamflow, based on routine measurements of stage and air temperature and the relation between stage and flow during open-water conditions. The form accommodates three dynamic modes of ice effects: sudden formation–ablation, stable ice conditions, and final elimination. The filter was applied to historical data from two long-term streamflow-gaging stations. They were stable and parameters converged for both stations, producing estimates that were highly correlated with and linearly related to published streamflow values in a log-transformed metric. At St. John River at Dickey, Maine, logarithms of projected streamflow values were within 8% of the logarithms of published values 87.2% of the time and within 15% of published values 96.6% of the time during periods of ice effects. At Platte River at North Bend, Nebraska, logarithms of projected streamflow values were within 8% of the logarithms of published daily values 90.7% of the time and within 15%, 97.7% of the time during ice-affected conditions. This extended Kalman filter allows estimation of ice-affected streamflow at other gaging stations by adjusting filter parameters to site-specific conditions.
Rights: Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Appears in Collections:CRREL Report

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