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Title: Development and results of a Northern Sea Route transit model
Authors: University of Alaska Fairbanks. Institute of Marine Science
Bronson Hills Associates
United States. Army. Corps of Engineers. Alaska District
Mulherin, Nathan D.
Eppler, Duane T.
Proshutinsky, Tatiana O.
Proshutinsky, Andrey Yu
Farmer, L. Dennis
Smith, Orson P.
Keywords: Arctic shipping
Computer modeling
Cost analysis
Marine shipping
Trade routes
Shipping routes
Monte Carlo modeling
Mathematical modeling
Mathematical models
Ice navigation
Northeast Passage
Northern Sea Route
Sea ice
Shipping cost
Publisher: Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory (U.S.)
Engineer Research and Development Center (U.S.)
Series/Report no.: CRREL report ; 96-5.
Description: CRREL Report
Abstract: For a Corps of Engineers reconnaissance study, we developed a numerical model to estimate the time needed for various ship types to transit the Russian Northern Sea Route. We simulated liquid bulk, dry bulk, and container ship transits during the months of April, June, August, and October. In the model, probability distributions for various ice, ocean and atmospheric inputs are exercised by a Monte Carlo algorithm to generate combinations of conditions that affect ship speed. The speed, dependent on the established environment during each time and distance segment, is read from empirically derived lookup tables. Daily ship rates and Russian passage fees were applied to calculate the relative total costs for moving the various cargoes over the route. The model’s development, limiting assumptions, simulation logic, data inputs, and resulting output are discussed.
Rights: Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Appears in Collections:CRREL Report

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