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Title: Sensitivity analysis of QSAR models for assessing novel military compounds
Authors: Intertox Inc.
Environmental Laboratory (U.S.)
Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (U.S.)
Clausen, Jay L.
Bennett, Erin R.
Linkov, Igor.
Keywords: Sensitivity analysis
Novel military compounds
Environmental impact analysis
Military explosives
Publisher: Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory (U.S.)
Engineer Research and Development Center (U.S.)
Series/Report no.: ERDC TR ; 09-3.
Description: Technical Report
Abstract: Reliable estimates of physical and biochemical properties of novel energetic compounds are essential before making the investment to synthesize, scale-up, and manufacture a new material for use in either military or civilian applications. Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationship (QSAR) software tools are available for predicting the physicochemical properties and environmental impacts of these emerging materials. The uncertainty and variability in melting point, solubility, half-lives, and related properties as a means of determining whether QSAR tools could provide meaningful results were evaluated. In particular, the octanol-water partition coefficient (Kšš˜šš  or log P) was estimated for several proposed compounds. Log P was selected both because it typically can be measured with a high degree of certainty and because it correlates highly with water solubility and bioaccumulation. This study tested: (1.) the variability in QSAR model predictions resulting from potential structural variants in emerging chemicals; and (2.) the uncertainty from six different commercial Kšš˜šš  calculators: KOWWIN, MarvinSketch, ACD/Labs, CLogP, SPARC, and ALOGPs. Analyses were performed on three military compounds [hexahydro-1,3,5-trinitro-1,3,5-triazine (RDX), butanetriol trinitrate (BTTN), and 2,4,6-trinitrotoluene (TNT)] and two pesticides [1-chloro-3-ethylamino-5-isopropylamino-2,4,6-triazine (atrazine) and dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene (DDE)]. Analyses of these compounds revealed that the uncertainty due to structural variations can be several orders of magnitude. Variability among the five software packages was as high as 10 orders of magnitude for emerging materials although lower for more well-studied chemicals such as DDE and atrazine. The magnitude of the uncertainty suggests use of existing QSAR models for emerging energetic materials is not appropriate.
Rights: Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
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