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|Title:||North Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study Phase I : statistical analysis of historical extreme water levels with sea level change|
|Authors:||United States. Army. Corps of Engineers. Baltimore District.|
Nadal-Caraballo, Norberto C.
Melby, Jeffrey A.
Extreme value distributions
Monte Carlo Life-Cycle
Peaks over threshold
Probabilistic Flood Hazard Analysis
Sea level change
Sea level rise
|Publisher:||Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory (U.S.)|
Engineer Research and Development Center (U.S.)
|Series/Report no.:||ERDC/CHL TR ; 14-7.|
Abstract: The U.S. North Atlantic coast is subject to coastal flooding as a result of both severe extratropical storms (e.g., Nor’easters) and tropical cyclones (hurricanes). The North Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study (NACCS) seeks to quantify existing and future forcing for use in assessing potential engineering projects that would reduce flooding risk and increase resiliency. The study encompasses the coastal region from Virginia to Maine. Extreme water levels as a function of return period were estimated for 23 gages spanning the northeast coast region. Continuous parametric distributions as well as empirical extremal distributions were computed as part of the statistical analysis. The extreme water level results based on historical data are shown to agree well with those computed by NOAA. Return period results for a range of sea level rise scenarios are presented as mean distributions as well as 10% and 90% confidence limits. Estimates of future extreme water levels due to sea level change represent the expected levels at the end of the 100-year horizon between 2015 and 2114.
|Appears in Collections:||Technical Report|