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Title: A probability tree applied to a common zebra mussel dispersal issue
Authors: Payne, Barry S.
Miller, Andrew C.
Keywords: Zebra mussel dispersal
Arkansas River
Bartholomew, Bayou (Ark. and La.)
Aquatic Nuisance Species Research Program (U.S.)
Publisher: Engineer Research and Development Center (U.S.)
Series/Report no.: Technical Note (Aquatic Nuisance Species Research Program (U.S.)) ; no. ERDC/TN ANSRP-04-1
Abstract: The purpose of this technical note is to show how a probability tree can be used to structure consideration of uncertainties surrounding zebra mussel dispersal. Probability trees are diagrammatic tools often used as part of formal decision analysis (Clemens and Reilly 2001). This particular tree considers uncertainties about the spread of zebra mussels to Bayou Bartholomew in light of existing data and knowledge concerning the physiological ecology of the species. This specific example is a useful model for similar projects involving potential spread of an invasive species. Probability trees help structure the consideration of uncertainty, communicate information and assumptions, and thus provide a tractable analysis.
Description: Technical Note
Gov't Doc #: ERDC/TN ANSRP-04-1
Rights: Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited
Appears in Collections:Technical Note

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