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Title: Beyond the factor of safety developing fragility curves to characterize system reliability
Authors: HR Wallingford, Ltd.
Geotechnical and Structures Laboratory (U.S.)
Water Resources Infrastructure Program (U.S.)
Schultz, Martin T.
Gouldby, Ben P.
Simm, Jonathan D.
Keywords: Dike and levee safety
Fragility curves
Risk assessment
Structural reliability analysis
Uncertainty analysis
Water resources infrastructure
Hydraulic structures
Publisher: Environmental Laboratory (U.S.)
Engineer Research and Development Center (U.S.)
Series/Report no.: ERDC SR ; 10-1.
Description: Special Report
Abstract: Fragility curves are becoming increasingly common components of flood risk assessments. This report introduces the concept of the fragility curve and shows how fragility curves are related to more familiar reliability concepts, such as the deterministic factor of safety and the relative reliability index. Examples of fragility curves are identified in the literature on structures and risk assessment to identify what methods have been used to develop fragility curves in practice. Four basic approaches are identified: judgmental, empirical, hybrid, and analytical. Analytical approaches are, by far, the most common method encountered in the literature. This group of methods is further decomposed based on whether the limit state equation is an explicit function or an implicit function and on whether the probability of failure is obtained using analytical solution methods or numerical solution methods. Advantages and disadvantages of the various approaches are considered.
Rights: Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Appears in Collections:Special Report

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