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dc.contributor.authorDouglas, Thomas A.-
dc.contributor.authorJorgenson, M. Torre.-
dc.contributor.authorGenet, Hélène.-
dc.contributor.authorMarcot, Bruce G.-
dc.contributor.authorNelsen, Patricia E.-
dc.identifier.govdocERDC/CRREL MP-22-2-
dc.descriptionMiscellaneous Paperen_US
dc.description.abstractClimate change and intensification of disturbance regimes are increasing the vulnerability of interior Alaska Department of Defense (DoD) training ranges to widespread land cover and hydrologic changes. This is expected to have profound impacts on wildlife habitats, conservation objectives, permitting requirements, and military training activities. The objective of this three-year research effort was to provide United States Army Alaska Garrison Fort Wainwright, Alaska (USAG-FWA) training land managers a scientific-based geospatial framework to assess wildlife habitat distribution and trajectories of change and to identify vulnerable wildlife species whose habitats and resources are likely to decline in response to permafrost degradation, changing wildfire regimes, and hydrologic reorganization projected to 2100. We linked field measurements, data synthesis, repeat imagery analyses, remote sensing measurements, and model simulations focused on land cover dynamics and wildlife habitat characteristics to identify suites of wildlife species most vulnerable to climate change. From this, we created a robust database linking vegetation, soil, and environmental characteristics across interior Alaska training ranges. The framework used is designed to support decision making for conservation management and habitat monitoring, land use, infrastructure development, and adaptive management across the interior Alaska DoD cantonment and training land domain.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipStrategic Environmental Research and Development Program (U.S.)en_US
dc.description.tableofcontentsTable of Contents 1 List of Figures 5 List of Tables 16 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 17 List of acronyms 20 1. OBJECTIVES 23 2. TECHNICAL APPROACH 27 2.1 Study Design and Field sites 27 2.2 Schedule 29 2.3 Task 1.1 31 2.3.1 Geospatial Measurements 31 2.3.2 Remote Sensing Measurements 36 2.3.3 Thermokarst Feature Development 37 2.4 Task 1.2 59 2.4.1 Background 59 2.4.2 Methods 60 Study Design 60 Image Compilation and Georectification 60 Ecological Classification and Change Detection 61 Historical Transition Probabilities 65 Climate Trends 65 Modeled Ecosystem Transitions 66 2.4.3 Results 66 Historical Ecotype Changes 66 Drivers of Change 72 Accuracy Assessment of Historical Changes 76 Climate Trends and Projections 78 Projected Ecotype Changes 79 2.4.4 Remote Sensing of Targeted Fen Changes 82 2.4.5 Remote Sensing of NDVI Change 82 2.5 Task 1.3 85 2.6 Task 1.4 88 2.6.1 An Aerial Photograph Transect Study of Interior Alaska training lands 88 Structure and Methods of the Aerial Photo Transect Study 89 2.6.2 Landscape Conditions Represented in the Photo Series 91 2.6.3 Archival Access of Photo Series Results 94 2.6.4 Examples of Comparing Previous and Current Site Conditions 94 2.6.5 Examples of Use of Nadir Photos to Create Panoramic Images 95 2.6.6 Examples of Use of Nadir Photo Series to Create Flight Path Animations 96 2.6.7 High-resolution DSLR Photography 97 2.7 Task 2.1 101 2.7.1 Model developments 101 2.7.2 Analysis of historical postfire trajectory using remote sensing data 102 Context 102 Approach 102 Description of the fire regime 103 Land cover change resulting from wildfire 104 The impact of climate on thermokarst occurrence 106 2.8 Task 2.2 110 2.8.1 Description of the Model 110 2.8.2 Description of the Model Simulations using historical probabilities 112 2.8.3 Description of the Model Inputs 113 2.8.4 Results 117 Effect of Constant Historical Probability of Ecotype Change 117 Effect of Explicit Fire Frequency and Severity on Ecotype Change 121 Effect of Climate Change and Vegetation Productivity on Ecotype Change 121 2.8 Task 2.3 123 2.9 Task 3.1 128 2.9.1 Overview of the Wildlife Analyses 128 2.9.2 Wildlife Species occurrence and Habitat Projections 128 What is Presented in This Section 128 How This Section Relates to Project Objectives and Hypotheses 128 2.9.3 Overall Work Flow of the Wildlife Analyses 129 Overall Objectives 129 Guiding Assumptions 129 Overall Work Flow: Identifying Species-Habitat Relationships and Projecting Habitat Changes 130 2.9.4 Wildlife Species Occurring in the Project Area 132 132 Birds 133 Mammals 135 Total Wildlife Species 138 Sign of Species Occurrence 139 Taxa Not Considered 142 2.9.5 Wildlife Species-Ecotype Relationships 144 Ecotypes Used 144 Use of Ecotypes by Wildlife Species 144 2.9.6 Bioacoustics of Interior Alaska Training Lands 161 Identification of Wildlife Species and Other Site Conditions Through Bioacoustic Recordings 161 Sampling Design Used for the Bioacoustic Recordings 161 Site Conditions of the Bioacoustic Recording Locations 163 2.9.8 Ecoacoustic Study of the Soundscapes of USAG-AK Training Lands 171 Audio Recordings Analyzed as Indices of Soundscape Conditions 171 Categories of Ecoacoustics 171 Examples of Ecoacoustic Categories 172 Analysis of Ecoacoustic Indices 177 2.10 Task 3.2 180 2.10.1 Species Habitats Over Past, Current, and Future Time Periods by Ecotype Projection Scenario 180 2.10.2 Integrating Ecotype Areas by Time Period 180 2.10.3 Species Habitats Over Past, Current, and Future Time Periods 183 Wood frog 183 Birds 184 Mammals 190 2.10.4. Patterns of Soundscapes in the Study Area and Implications for Wildlife Management 194 Overview of Ecoacoustic Indices by Soundscape Categories 194 The Daily Cycle of Sounds 195 The Seasonal Cycle of Sounds 197 Influence of Vegetation Conditions on Sounds 199 Influence on Sounds from Proximity to Human Activities 201 How Sounds Varied By Sampled Site 208 2.11 Task 3.3 210 2.11.1 Habitat Trends of Key Selected Wildlife Species and Species Groups by Scenario 210 Bird Migrant Stopover Species Groups 210 Bird Game Species 213 Bird Habitat Specialists 213 Other Bird Species Groups 214 Mammal Game Or Subsistence Species 220 Mammal Habitat Specialists 221 Mammal Carnivores And Top Predators 222 Examples Of Trends Of Mammals By Time Period 223 2.12 Task 4 229 2.12.1 Discussion and Management Implications of the Wildlife Habitat Analyses 229 Assumptions and Caveats 229 Expectations of Ecotype Projection Scenarios 230 Species-Rich Ecotypes Depict Spatial Variability in Drivers of Vulnerability 230 Understanding the Relationship Between Changing Climate and Key Ecological Processes 230 Habitat Futures for Game and Subsistence Species 231 Conservation and Protection of Key Ecotypes for the Most Vulnerable Species 231 Effects on Wildlife Habitat From Environmental Disturbances 232 Considering Habitat Fragmentation and Connectivity 232 How Wildlife Behaviors Can Alter Habitat 232 2.12.3 Discussion and Potential Implications for Future Inventory, Monitoring, and Research 233 2.12.4 Conclusions and Management Implications of the Soundscape Analyses 233 2.12.5 Applications for Future Change-Detection Studies 234 3. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS FOR TRAINING RANGE MANAGEMENT 235 REFERENCES CITED 238 4. ADDRESSING COMMENTS FROM THE INTERIM REPORT 250 SERDP INTERIM REPORT COMMENTS 250 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS 257 PEER REVIEWED PUBLICATIONS AND PRESENTATIONS SUPPORTED BY THIS PROJECT 258 5. APPENDICES 263 Appendix A.1. References Consulted for Determining Wildlife Species Occurrence and Habitat Use on Fort Wainwright 263 Appendix A.2. Issue with Cornell Swift ARU audio recording anomalies 297-
dc.format.extent322 pages / 29.8 MB-
dc.publisherEngineer Research and Development Center (U.S.)en_US
dc.relation.ispartofseriesMiscellaneous Paper (Engineer Research and Development Center (U.S.)) ; no. ERDC/CRREL MP-22-2-
dc.rightsApproved for Public Release; Distribution is Unlimited-
dc.sourceThis Digital Resource was created in Microsoft Word and Adobe Acrobat-
dc.subjectClimatic changesen_US
dc.subjectHabitat (Ecology)en_US
dc.subjectEndangered speciesen_US
dc.subjectEnvironmental managementen_US
dc.subjectFort Wainwright (Alaska)en_US
dc.titleInterior Alaska DoD training land wildlife habitat vulnerability to permafrost thaw, an altered fire regime, and hydrologic changesen_US
Appears in Collections:Miscellaneous Paper

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