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Title: Projecting shifts in human and ecological zones
Authors: Cotterman, Kayla A.
Westervelt, James D.
Roningen, Jeanne Marie.
Rhodes, Angela M.
Keywords: Central America
Climatic changes--Forecasting
Ecological provinces
Food supply
Land use
Land use mapping
Publisher: Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory (U.S.)
Construction Engineering Research Laboratory (U.S.)
Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory (U.S.)
Engineer Research and Development Center (U.S.)
Series/Report no.: Technical Report (Engineer Research and Development Center (U.S.)) ; no. ERDC TR-19-23
Abstract: As the human population approaches 7.7 billion, Earths capacity to support human life is stretched. There are declining opportunities for the expansion of human agriculture and settlements into new places. Additionally, there is an expected increase in the motivation for local people to defend land that currently supports the production of essential food and water. As climate non-stationarity continues, changes in the productivity of local food and water supply could result in starvation or surpluses. This study addresses the following question regarding the future potential of land resources to support local populations with food and water: How might existing ecological and anthropogenic biomes shift over the twenty-first century? Recent historic ecological and anthropogenic biome maps are statistically correlated with recent historic climate to generate models. These are then applied to anticipated future climates to generate future biome and anthrome maps. These maps are evaluated and summarized to suggest how the future climate might change and affect land use patterns. This analysis is constrained to the area of Central America over the course of the twenty-first century based on the results of recent climate models. However, it is a goal of the authors that the methods developed in this work can be applied to other regions of the world.
Description: Technical Report
Gov't Doc #: ERDC TR-19-23
Rights: Approved for Public Release; Distribution is Unlimited
Size: 94 pages / 3.627 Mb
Types of Materials: PDF
Appears in Collections:Technical Report

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