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Title: Storm recurrence rate models for tropical cyclones : report 1 of a series on the quantification of uncertainties in probabilistic storm surge models
Authors: Nadal-Caraballo, Norberto C.
Gonzalez, Victor M.
Chouinard, Luc.
Keywords: Cyclones--Tropics
Floods--Risk assessment
Storm surges
Uncertainty--Mathematical models
Publisher: Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory (U.S.)
Engineer Research and Development Center (U.S.)
Series/Report no.: Technical Report (Engineer Research and Development Center (U.S.)) ; no. ERDC/CHL TR-19-4
Abstract: Quantification of the storm surge hazard is an integral part of the probabilistic flood hazard assessment of structures and facilities located in coastal areas. The U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center, Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory (ERDC-CHL), performed a comprehensive assessment of uncertainties in probabilistic storm surge models for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) as part of its efforts to develop a framework for probabilistic storm surge hazard assessment for nuclear power plants. State-of-the-art statistical assessment of coastal storm hazards in hurricane-prone coastal areas requires the development of a joint probability model of tropical cyclone (TC) forcing parameters. The task summarized in this technical report focused on the quantification of epistemic uncertainties in storm recurrence rate (SRR) models and associated data sources. SRR is an estimate of the expected annual rate of occurrence of TCs within a given region. Numerical experiments were performed to quantify SRR uncertainty associated with data sampling, observational data quality, selection of kernel function and kernel size, period of record, quality of observational data, and partition of TCs according to their intensity. This technical report is the first of a series covering the USNRC-sponsored study “Quantification of Uncertainties in Probabilistic Storm Surge Models performed by the ERDC CHL.”
Description: Technical Report
Gov't Doc #: ERDC/CHL TR-19-4
Rights: Approved for Public Release; Distribution is Unlimited
Size: 137 pages / 15.07 Mb
Types of Materials: PDF
Appears in Collections:Technical Report

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