Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/11681/2892
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dc.contributor.authorEllingwood, Bruce R.en_US
dc.creatorJohns Hopkins University. Department of Civil Engineeringen_US
dc.creatorInformation Technology Laboratory (U.S.)en_US
dc.creatorInformation Technology Laboratory (U.S.)en_US
dc.date.accessioned2016-03-15T15:20:26Zen_US
dc.date.available2016-03-15T15:20:26Zen_US
dc.date.issued1995-07en_US
dc.identifier.govdocContract Report ITL-95-2en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11681/2892en_US
dc.descriptionContract Reporten_US
dc.description.abstractEvent combinations for design or evaluation of navigation structures should be evaluated probabilistically, and design criteria can be developed to be consistent with a level of performance expressed in probabilistic terms. (A.) The probability of a joint occurrence of common loads at their peak values is very small. Thus, when considering what loads should be combined, a significant reduction in the combined load from the sum of nominal design values is appropriate. A principal action-companion action format for combining structural actions is recommended for maintaining uniform reliability. (B.) The illustration of the event combination methodology indicated the following: (1.) The probability of a coincidence of operating loads and earthquake is on the order of 10^-10. (2.) The probability of a coincidence of earthquake and impact is on the order of 10^-15. (3.) The probability of a coincidence of earthquake and flood is on the order of 10^-11. It appears as if combinations of these events are very rare and would not need to be considered in design or evaluation. However, further study of these recommendations would be desirable. (C.) Load combinations for dealing with accidental events should be based on a conditional probability of about 0.01-0.1 that the combined load effect is exceeded, given that an accident occurs. The overall unconditional probability of structural failure using this design approach is estimated to be on the order of 10^-5 /yr or less. (D.) Research should be undertaken to develop a protocol for combining extreme events in design of navigation facilities.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipPrepared for U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Washington, DC 20314-1000en_US
dc.description.tableofcontentsTable of Contents Preface 1. Introductio 1.1 Review of previous work 1.2 Research objectives and scope 2. Probabilistic models of load processes 2.1 Basic load process models 2.2 Permanent loads · 2.2.1 Dead loads 2.2.2 Temperature and other self-straining effects 2.2.3 Prestressing 2.3 Environmental loads 2.3.1 Snow loads 2.3.2 Wind loads 2.3.3 Earthquake effects 2.3.4 Flood loads 2.4 Operating loads 2.4.1. Hydrostatic loads 2.4.2 Equipment .and hydrodynamic loads 2.4.3 Impact 2.5 Summary 3. Probabilistic basis for event combination analysis 3.1 General considerations 3.2 Fundamental event combination analysis 3.3 Illustration of event combination analysis 4. Recommendations for design 5. Conclusions 6. References ... 111 v 1 1 5 6 6 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 13 17 18 18 19 19 20 22 2 23 31 34 37 38 Table 2. Figure 1. Figure 2. Figure 2. Figure 2. Figure 3. Figure 3.2 List of Tables Statistics of structural load events List of Figures Combination of structural loads Poisson pulse process models of events and loads Upcrossing analysis of time-dependent events Typical seismic hazard curves Event tree for analysis of event combinations Stochastically dependent event occurrences • IV 2 2 7 9 16 2 30en_US
dc.format.extent49 pages/8.95 MBsen_US
dc.format.mediumPDF/Aen_US
dc.language.isoen_USen_US
dc.publisherU.S. Army Engineer Waterways Experiment Stationen_US
dc.relationhttp://acwc.sdp.sirsi.net/client/en_US/search/asset/1035227en_US
dc.relation.ispartofseriesContract Report (Information Technology Laboratory (U.S.)) ; no. Contract Report ITL-95-2en_US
dc.rightsApproved for public release; distribution is unlimiteden_US
dc.sourceThe ERDC Library created this digital resource from scans of the Print Resourceen_US
dc.subjectEvaluation techniquesen_US
dc.subjectEvent combinationsen_US
dc.subjectJoint probabilitiesen_US
dc.subjectNavigation structuresen_US
dc.subjectHydraulic structuresen_US
dc.subjectProbabilistic loadsen_US
dc.subjectRare eventsen_US
dc.subjectReliability assessmenten_US
dc.subjectRisk analysisen_US
dc.subjectStructural assessmenten_US
dc.subjectStructural analysisen_US
dc.titleEvent combination analysis for design and rehabilitation of U.S. Army Corps of Engineers navigation structuresen_US
dc.typeReporten_US
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