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Title: Event combination analysis for design and rehabilitation of U.S. Army Corps of Engineers navigation structures
Authors: Johns Hopkins University. Department of Civil Engineering.
U.S. Army Engineer Waterways Experiment Station
Ellingwood, Bruce R.
Keywords: Evaluation techniques
Event combinations
Joint probabilities
Navigation structures
Hydraulic structures
Probabilistic loads
Rare events
Reliability assessment
Risk analysis
Structural assessment
Structural analysis
Issue Date: Jul-1995
Publisher: Information Technology Laboratory (U.S.)
Series/Report no.: Contract Report (U.S. Army Engineer Waterways Experiment Station) ; ITL-95-2
Abstract: Event combinations for design or evaluation of navigation structures should be evaluated probabilistically, and design criteria can be developed to be consistent with a level of performance expressed in probabilistic terms. (A.) The probability of a joint occurrence of common loads at their peak values is very small. Thus, when considering what loads should be combined, a significant reduction in the combined load from the sum of nominal design values is appropriate. A principal action-companion action format for combining structural actions is recommended for maintaining uniform reliability. (B.) The illustration of the event combination methodology indicated the following: (1.) The probability of a coincidence of operating loads and earthquake is on the order of 10^-10. (2.) The probability of a coincidence of earthquake and impact is on the order of 10^-15. (3.) The probability of a coincidence of earthquake and flood is on the order of 10^-11. It appears as if combinations of these events are very rare and would not need to be considered in design or evaluation. However, further study of these recommendations would be desirable. (C.) Load combinations for dealing with accidental events should be based on a conditional probability of about 0.01-0.1 that the combined load effect is exceeded, given that an accident occurs. The overall unconditional probability of structural failure using this design approach is estimated to be on the order of 10^-5 /yr or less. (D.) Research should be undertaken to develop a protocol for combining extreme events in design of navigation facilities.
Description: Contract Report
Gov't Doc #: Contract Report ITL-95-2
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