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Title: Probabilistic and reliability analysis of the California Bearing Ratio (CBR) design method for flexible airfield pavements
Authors: Chou, Yu T.
Keywords: CBR equation
California Bearing Ratio equation
Flexible airfield pavement
Pavement desing
Probabilistic analysis
Rosenblueth method
Taylor series expansion
Statistical methods
Issue Date: Aug-1986
Publisher: Geotechnical Laboratory (U.S.)
Engineer Research and Development Center (U.S.)
Series/Report no.: Technical report (U.S. Army Engineer Waterways Experiment Station) ; GL-86-15.
Description: Technical Report
Abstract: The California Bearing Ratio (CBR) design method for flexible airfield pavements was analyzed using a probabilistic approach. The design parameters considered were the load P (or the equivalent single-wheel load), the subgrade CBR, the tire contact area A, and the pavement total thickness t. The expected value and variance of the dependent variable performance factor α (which is logarithmically related to the number of passes to failure) were estimated by using the Taylor series expansion and the Rosenblueth method. Differences in computed results between the two methods were found to be small, although the derivation of the expressions for Taylor series expansion was very complicated. A procedure was developed to estimate the reliability of the designed pavement system based on known variabilities of design parameters. Results of the reliability analysis indicate that prediction of pavement performance is most influenced by variations of pavement thickness t and is least influenced by variations of tire contact area A. The effects of variations of wheel load P and subgrade CBR are identical. The weighting factors for parameters t, CBR, P, and A, in general, are approximately 1, 0.34, 0.34, and 0.01, respectively (Table 3).
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