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Title: Convex watershed-reservoir model for risk assessment of spillways and nonoverflow dam monoliths subjected to flood hazard
Authors: Béjar, Luis A. de.
Keywords: Flood hazard
Flood control
Probabilistic models of spillways
Hydraulic structures
Risk assessment
Watershed-reservoir model
Mathematical models
Numerical models
Publisher: Geotechnical and Structures Laboratory (U.S.)
Engineer Research and Development Center (U.S.)
Series/Report no.: ERDC/GSL TR ; 01-8.
Description: Technical Report
Abstract: This investigation introduces a convex model to describe the response of watershed-reservoir-dam systems to water-input events and to build corresponding flood hazard curves in support of evaluations of risk for dam safety. The following conclusions are derived from this investigation: (A.) A rational theoretical model has been developed to represent the routing of a water-input event through a watershed-reservoir-dam system and to assess its response in terms of the inflow design flood into the reservoir and the resulting reservoir pool. (B.) Both deterministic and probabilistic implementations of the model allow ready computational analysis, useful for both design and for situational assessment. (C.) System response random processes are best modeled as log-normally distributed. (D.) Noise in the reservoir component is easily included in the probabilistic formulation of the model and has an important influence in the magnitude of the resulting hazard. An accurate assessment of the noise intensity may prove difficult in practice, but realistic reliability assessments can be conducted using bounds on the noise intensity. (E.) The model provides direct evaluation of the probability of overtopping in a given flood scenario and provides the fundamental hazard curve for complete risk analysis of the dam structure, including the possible sliding, overstressing, and overturning modes of failure.
Rights: Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Appears in Collections:Technical Report

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